TSP Forecast, Mar 22

[snaffu]

Lets see how long I can keep this up this time.. This past week has been fantastic if you were in, but I think the ride is about over.

My position: 100% S

AGG / F Fund:... F , What can I say about this but Yuck.. with the slight exception, its been nothing but down since the first of the year.. Stay away

SPX / C Fund:... C, Wonderful run last week, but as I said in the opening, I think its about over. Slow STO's are over 80, Its toping out on the BB and MACD is still rising, but lately changes have been swift and it takes a day or so for MACD to reflect. I'd be looking close for an exit on C Fund.

DWCPF / S Fund:... S, Same as C Fund, great run last week, But I'm looking for an exit.

EFA / I Fund:... I Fund, Surprisingly, with the world situation, I fund has been doing the best percentage wise of them all in recent days. I have it up almost 10% in the past 2 weeks.. but like the rest, I don't see much more upside..

Past 5 days returns..
F Fund... 0.34%
C Fund... 6.92%
S Fund... 8.48%
I Fund.... 5.83%

Other Charts....
DOW Index , CNBC Pre-Markets

Summary...
I'm looking real close at going 'G' fund on Tuesday till EOM. I think all the core funds are done with their run. With the funds in a general decline, Very few of us are having any luck timing the market, myself included. I'm only a few points ahead of S fund.. and we are coming up on the seasonal dog days in about a month, what is it, 'Stay away in May' or something like that. Good luck.

[12squared]

SPX / C Fund:... C, Wonderful run last week, but as I said in the opening, I think its about over. Slow STO's are over 80, Its toping out on the BB and MACD is still rising, but lately changes have been swift and it takes a day or so for MACD to reflect. I'd be looking close for an exit on C Fund.

If you believe that "the trend is your friend", here are a few reasons to keep looking up:

$SPX 2022-3-21 COB.png

$SPX is well above it's 5 day MA, which has a strong upwards slope. Once price breaks its MA(5) - and stays on the other side - a shift may be in progress.

$SPX's slope (7 day best fit) has been positive since March 16, and is still increasing. When it flattens I get cautious. A slope less than zero indicates a downward trend.

PSAR (Parabolic Stop And Reverse) flipped on March 16.

The "fast" (parameters are half of standard) MACD has been positive since March 15 and steadily increasing since the 16th.

Fast (1/3 standard interval) TRIX has been positive and increasing since the 15th.

A one day retreat from a Bollinger Band limit is not significant. Strong trends tend to pull the BB(20,x) along with them. Trend usually has changed when price breaks into the middle zone of BB(20,1) - i.e. the middle 2/3 of the "bell curve"

The S fund looks similar.

$DWCPF 2022-3-21 COB.png

Change the parameters to longer intervals for confirmation.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SP ... 1652295908

I suggest that the uptrend is still intact.

12²

[bloobs]

....and we are coming up on the seasonal dog days in about a month, what is it, 'Stay away in May' or something like that....

I think historical price data has disprovem "sell in may and go away...", at least until the tail end of May. Further, this same data also shows that April is overall a very strong month.

[snaffu]

Ah, A differing opinion, I love it.. I agree 'The trend is your friend', but what do you consider a trend.. A week? Month?, Longer? Overall I see it leveling out just a bit from a few months of down trend. If I read your chart correctly, you're using SAR as a trend indicator, and recent history would indicate that there is more uptrend to enjoy, could be..

I'm looking at an up day Tuesday/Wednesday, maybe a couple of days see-saw then profit taking. Lets see what happens..

[12squared]

Ah, A differing opinion, I love it.. I agree 'The trend is your friend', but what do you consider a trend.. A week? Month?, Longer? Overall I see it leveling out just a bit from a few months of down trend. If I read your chart correctly, you're using SAR as a trend indicator, and recent history would indicate that there is more uptrend to enjoy, could be..

I'm looking at an up day Tuesday/Wednesday, maybe a couple of days see-saw then profit taking. Lets see what happens..

I offer only observations, based on changes in various barometers. These fall into three categories:
○ Trend is intact
○ Trend is changing
○ No trend
I don't try to guess when the transition will occur.

PSAR is one of the better barometers, but the others mentioned earlier have more nuances. For example, I've observed that the sharper the bend in the Slope, TRIX or MACD, the higher the likelihood that the trend has reversed. Note use of past tense. That said, many of these inflection points have coincided very well with tops and bottoms. In contrast, moving averages have too much lag for short term trend following. However, I've observed that these can be useful as "out of bounds" markers. Shallow crossings are less significant than sharp crossings.

[bloobs]

My guess is that today will be a down day, this week will be a see-saw. Next week, the (new?) trend will be defined.

If I'm wrong, I take a shot. If I'm right, I chug a beer. Either way, I'm gonna be ok

[Tomanyiron]

My 2¢ on this subject is: Futures are up, the trend is up. That’s good for now, and there’s not much else we can rely on.

https://schrts.co/SrQsygxc

[12squared]

The sharper the bend, the greater the chance of tipping over.

Here's a similar chart for the VIX, as of COB yesterday. Note how changing the first PSAR parameters from 0.02 to 0.035 shortens the response time.

$VIX 2022-3-21 COB.png

[snaffu]

My position: 100% G-Fund till EOM.

AGG / F Fund:... F is still in a down trend, nothing worth looking at here.

SPX / C Fund:... C IMO, has broke for the downside. time to get out and catch the bottom. MACD and STO have turned down.

DWCPF / S Fund:... S same as C Fund, short term downtrend may have started.

EFA / I Fund:... I Fund, same as the others, time to jump.

Past 5 days returns..
F Fund... -0.31%
C Fund... 2.28%
S Fund... 3.68%
I Fund.... 1.11%

Other Charts....
DOW Index , CNBC Pre-Markets

As I tried to express earlier this week, I think it time to get out for a short time and catch the bottom around the end of the month. Thats my plan anyway.

[jimcasada]

A market that zig zags up & down, plus or minus a couple of points, every couple of days or so, doesn't sound like it has found a very solid bottom yet.

[12squared]

AGG / F Fund:... F is still in a down trend, nothing worth looking at here.

AGG looks like it may be trying to head upwards, based on the upward slopes of the TRIX and the fast MACD. An upward slant and/or crossing of its MA(5) would further support this.
[https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG&p ... 8499697585]AGG (F fund)[/url]

AGG 2022-3-24 COB.png

SPX / C Fund:... C IMO, has broke for the downside. time to get out and catch the bottom. MACD and STO have turned down.

DWCPF / S Fund:... S same as C Fund, short term downtrend may have started.

EFA / I Fund:... I Fund, same as the others, time to jump.

All three funds have definitely slowed their ascents, but none has of yet "broke for the downside". As long as their MA(5) is still heading upwards, they have not yet rolled over.

That said, C is slowing less quickly than the others.
SPY:EFA (C vs I fund)

EFA%SPY 2022-3-24 COB.png

SPY:VXF (C vs S fund)

S%C 2022-3-24 COB.png

[Bubba]

I'm looking heavily at ALT 1 https://twitter.com/pop_ey_ch/status/15 ... 01/photo/1. We'll see if he's right, but this aligns nicely with my chosen TSPCalc strategy.

Have a great day all!

Best,

Bubba