Just Like clockwork...
Moderator: Aitrus
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Re: Just Like clockwork...
June’s Low is within eyeshot, here’s Hopin’ we don’t breach that Support Level…
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/20/stock-m ... shtml.html
Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/20/stock-m ... shtml.html
Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
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“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein
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- Posts: 795
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Re: Just Like clockwork...
Not a comfortin’ sentiment…
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/us ... vid-bossie
Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/us ... vid-bossie
Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein
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- Posts: 795
- Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am
Re: Just Like clockwork...
Unbelievably Steep Declines throughout the day, negating any Positive Momentum…
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/stock-m ... -news.html
PERFECT TIMING (Sarcasm): FOMC Minutes from yesterday’s Rate Hike Decision will become available @ the same time as 3rd Qtr Earnings begin (in earnest)…
Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/stock-m ... -news.html
PERFECT TIMING (Sarcasm): FOMC Minutes from yesterday’s Rate Hike Decision will become available @ the same time as 3rd Qtr Earnings begin (in earnest)…
Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein
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- Posts: 795
- Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am
Re: Just Like clockwork...
Can’t re-enter the market until Friday, 1-Oct-22,but based on this LONG LOWER SHADOW CANDLESTICK formation
https://www.angelone.in/knowledge-cente ... andlestick
It’s sure tempting nonetheless. Need added CONFIRMATION of a couple consecutive days that momentum may be trending in a positive direction…
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/22/futures ... -offs.html
Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
https://www.angelone.in/knowledge-cente ... andlestick
It’s sure tempting nonetheless. Need added CONFIRMATION of a couple consecutive days that momentum may be trending in a positive direction…
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/22/futures ... -offs.html
Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein
Re: Just Like clockwork...
The SPY could rebound on Monday/Tuesday but it would only be a dead cat bounce (fizzle at 375 or maybe 378). IMO, it first WANTS to drop to the -1 standard deviation (dotted orange line around 357) at which point it will EITHER continue to flush towards the -2 standard deviation (dotted green line at 329), OR it will rebound back up towards the mean standard deviation (dotted white line around 387).
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Re: Just Like clockwork...
jatelle, which MA are you basing std. devs?jatelle wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:37 pm The SPY could rebound on Monday/Tuesday but it would only be a dead cat bounce (fizzle at 375 or maybe 378). IMO, it first WANTS to drop to the -1 standard deviation (dotted orange line around 357) at which point it will EITHER continue to flush towards the -2 standard deviation (dotted green line at 329), OR it will rebound back up towards the mean standard deviation (dotted white line around 387).
Re: Just Like clockwork...
Hi Bloobs. Like longer time frame Moving Averages (i.e. 50, 100 and 200), Standard Deviations can be very strong levels of support and resistance. Price likes to move from one statistical deviation to the next and usually swings between the +1 and -1 deviations and sometimes between the +2 and -2 deviations, and occasionally between the +3/-3, but rarely between the +4/-4 deviations. I use a Standard Deviation study that I purchased from BoilerRoomTrading for use in my ThinkorSwim platform. It is very helpful for Day trading and TSP investing alike. The study includes 4 standard deviation time frames. Each of the these deviation time frames is charted and color-coded by degree that price deviates plus or minus from the Mean (0). The Mean (0 deviation) is white; and +1/-1 deviations are orange; and +2/-2 deviations are green, +3/-3 deviations are teal blue; +4/-4 deviations are purple. I attached a sample of the Mean (0) deviation in white charting all four standard deviation time frames:bloobs wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:47 amjatelle, which MA are you basing std. devs?jatelle wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:37 pm The SPY could rebound on Monday/Tuesday but it would only be a dead cat bounce (fizzle at 375 or maybe 378). IMO, it first WANTS to drop to the -1 standard deviation (dotted orange line around 357) at which point it will EITHER continue to flush towards the -2 standard deviation (dotted green line at 329), OR it will rebound back up towards the mean standard deviation (dotted white line around 387).
Six Month/Day (this is the closest and in fact the only way to simulate 180 Day/4 Hour on an intra-day chart)
1 Year/Day
1 Year/Week **(Note - Needs at least 1-4 days of chart data to work, depending on where we are in the week)
1 Year/Month **(Note - Needs at least 1-20 days of chart data to work, depending on where we are in the month)
I chart all of the deviations except the "1 Year/Month"(I don't find it is commonly a support or resistance for price).
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Re: Just Like clockwork...
Thanks Jatelle. I asked because in the past I've used Tableau Public loaded with daily stock or any index price data to come up with a line chart of common moving averages (depending on my trading buy/sell timeframe as you noted; 18 day for short, 50 day for mid and 200 day for long), then overlay each MA's 1st and 2nd standard deviation ranges on top to identify probable support and resistance levels. I liked it because its was free and doing it myself removed the chance of possible "developer bias" injected into the charts
Re: Just Like clockwork...
Ahh so you know it all too well. I realize the risk of developer bias here but I have found this study developer Conner Pollifrone to be a real straight shooter and very knowledgeable. I am finding his study to be a remarkably reliable indicator of momentum and trends. But that said. I agree "free" is good. Anyways, I will keep posting screenshots of the standard deviations here in this forum for the benefit of others if it can help them with their TSP Interfund transfers. I am happy to share...bloobs wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 3:30 pmThanks Jatelle. I asked because in the past I've used Tableau Public loaded with daily stock or any index price data to come up with a line chart of common moving averages (depending on my trading buy/sell timeframe as you noted; 18 day for short, 50 day for mid and 200 day for long), then overlay each MA's 1st and 2nd standard deviation ranges on top to identify probable support and resistance levels. I liked it because its was free and doing it myself removed the chance of possible "developer bias" injected into the charts
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Re: Just Like clockwork...
Lower Highs + Lower Lows are rarely indicative of a trend reversal…
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/25/stock-m ... -news.html
For a brief moment (this morning), I thought we were going to get a lil’ traction in a positive direction…
Next SUPPORT LEVEL appears to 3,250…
Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/25/stock-m ... -news.html
For a brief moment (this morning), I thought we were going to get a lil’ traction in a positive direction…
Next SUPPORT LEVEL appears to 3,250…
Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein
Re: Just Like clockwork...
Wingchaser, you're spot on. That Support Level aligns with where -2 standard deviation (green) is now. I would expect we will first see a pop up at the -1 deviation (orange) around 3,525. If the orange fails then yes it is flushing down to the green...sigh...
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Re: Just Like clockwork...
Interestin’ read(s)…
https://dailyreckoning.com/how-far-could-stocks-fall/
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/black-monday-20
Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
https://dailyreckoning.com/how-far-could-stocks-fall/
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/black-monday-20
Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein
Re: Just Like clockwork...
The volume profile chart below seems to add to both your cases, as to where the bulls/bears are placing their orders.jatelle wrote: ↑Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:56 pmWingchaser, you're spot on. That Support Level aligns with where -2 standard deviation (green) is now. I would expect we will first see a pop up at the -1 deviation (orange) around 3,525. If the orange fails then yes it is flushing down to the green...sigh...
Re: Just Like clockwork...
Thanks Bloobs for this volume profile chart. Very interesting!
Last edited by jatelle on Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:49 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Re: Just Like clockwork...
jatelle wrote: ↑Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:04 pmThanks Bloobs for this volume profile chart. Very interesting! It shows how traders are concentrating their orders at the Standard Deviations: At the +1 SD (4,300), and at the 0 Mean SD (3,900) and next at the -2 SD (3,250). I notice how there are fewer orders at the current price around the -1 SD of 3,500 to 3,600) suggesting the price is likely to skip down to the -2 SD pretty quickly.
Fund Prices2024-03-28
Fund | Price | Day | YTD |
G | $18.15 | 0.05% | 1.05% |
F | $19.08 | -0.06% | -0.74% |
C | $82.21 | 0.11% | 10.55% |
S | $82.43 | 0.30% | 6.92% |
I | $42.57 | -0.24% | 5.95% |
L2065 | $16.38 | 0.02% | 8.37% |
L2060 | $16.39 | 0.02% | 8.38% |
L2055 | $16.39 | 0.02% | 8.38% |
L2050 | $32.73 | 0.01% | 6.95% |
L2045 | $14.91 | 0.02% | 6.58% |
L2040 | $54.38 | 0.02% | 6.22% |
L2035 | $14.34 | 0.02% | 5.79% |
L2030 | $47.67 | 0.02% | 5.38% |
L2025 | $13.15 | 0.03% | 3.43% |
Linc | $25.61 | 0.03% | 2.82% |