Highly recommend

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bloobs
Posts: 1616
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: Highly recommend

Post by bloobs »

12squared wrote: Sat Jan 14, 2023 2:32 pm
harpole wrote: Sat Jan 14, 2023 2:01 pm Just think if people actually critiqued all the government propaganda :idea:
In this case, the "critique" was based on analysis of the facts.
Analysis of immutable facts as a basis for decision making is sooooo pre-2016 lol

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12squared
Posts: 675
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Re: Highly recommend

Post by 12squared »

bloobs wrote: Sat Jan 14, 2023 8:39 pm
12squared wrote: Sat Jan 14, 2023 2:32 pm
harpole wrote: Sat Jan 14, 2023 2:01 pm Just think if people actually critiqued all the government propaganda :idea:
In this case, the "critique" was based on analysis of the facts.
Analysis of immutable facts as a basis for decision making is sooooo pre-2016 lol
Grow Fund returns as of 11/30/22 must have been based on Alternate facts.
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie

Bubba
Posts: 394
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:40 am

Re: Highly recommend

Post by Bubba »

harpole wrote: Sat Jan 14, 2023 2:01 pm Just think if people actually critiqued all the government propaganda :idea:
Twitter and certain media do nothing "but" that...

Bubba
Posts: 394
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:40 am

Re: Highly recommend

Post by Bubba »

12squared wrote: Sat Jan 14, 2023 9:10 pm
bloobs wrote: Sat Jan 14, 2023 8:39 pm
12squared wrote: Sat Jan 14, 2023 2:32 pm
In this case, the "critique" was based on analysis of the facts.
Analysis of immutable facts as a basis for decision making is sooooo pre-2016 lol
Grow Fund returns as of 11/30/22 must have been based on Alternate facts.
Interesting point. A year ago I was curious to growth funds. I grabbed a few Fidelity growth funds (because I can easily access their data going back to the 80s). I found if you invested in those funds and then went to treasuries whenever the 3M vs 10 Yr uninverted (assuming there's an inversion here), you would get a CAGR of over 19%. That's from about 1988 to 2022 (I can't remember if it was July or August). Depending on the fund, you could also get a bit more (or less).

As a side note, I haven't invested like that, but it was a very interesting study to say the least.

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bloobs
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Re: Highly recommend

Post by bloobs »

Bubba wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 4:37 am I grabbed a few Fidelity growth funds (because I can easily access their data going back to the 80s). I found if you invested in those funds and then went to treasuries whenever the 3M vs 10 Yr uninverted (assuming there's an inversion here), you would get a CAGR of over 19%. That's from about 1988 to 2022 (I can't remember if it was July or August). Depending on the fund, you could also get a bit more (or less).

As a side note, I haven't invested like that, but it was a very interesting study to say the least.
Interesting :D The only downside to this schedule would be, I imagine, a very large standard deviation, due to the extended periods between these inversions cycles. Is there a symbol you used for the 3yr v 10yr chart?

Bubba
Posts: 394
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:40 am

Re: Highly recommend

Post by Bubba »

bloobs wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 7:47 am
Bubba wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 4:37 am I grabbed a few Fidelity growth funds (because I can easily access their data going back to the 80s). I found if you invested in those funds and then went to treasuries whenever the 3M vs 10 Yr uninverted (assuming there's an inversion here), you would get a CAGR of over 19%. That's from about 1988 to 2022 (I can't remember if it was July or August). Depending on the fund, you could also get a bit more (or less).

As a side note, I haven't invested like that, but it was a very interesting study to say the least.
Interesting :D The only downside to this schedule would be, I imagine, a very large standard deviation, due to the extended periods between these inversions cycles. Is there a symbol you used for the 3yr v 10yr chart?
Yeah, the main problem was the timing. Most of the time, the "uninversion" was the trigger, but sometimes there was pain beforehand. The SD wasn't terrible, but it was about 20 or so (depending on the fund).

I also used long-term treasuries as my hide out, but this time around long-terms would have been painful.

In any case, it did show me the primary reason why value outperforms growth over a long period of time (20 years +). (a) Value does better (typically) during high inflation periods and (b) during downturns as those stocks typically are already discounted prior to the pain. For that reason, you get outperformance when you buy and hold value over growth. If you decide to actively trade, which we do (sort of) with the TSPCalc systems, then you can outperform value too. Here's to hoping all of us kill it in 2023! :D

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12squared
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Re: Highly recommend

Post by 12squared »

jatelle wrote: Fri Jan 13, 2023 8:43 pm
jackyl33 wrote: Fri Jan 13, 2023 7:11 pm "UPDATE"
Below is the explanation from GMTSP Admin

"Their formula included the performance on the day of the Alert. An unacceptable mistake from both their perspective and mine. KIS is recreating their original spreadsheet with the correct inputs.
We have taken down the Performance page on our site. We will bring it back online once we have the new performance data in hand."

Seems like an honest mistake, My faith is restored for now. On their podcasts they really seem like good guys just trying to educate and help fellow veterans and civil servants.
Yes, I agree they seem to be very well meaning guys. It will be interesting to see what their performance metrics are with the corrected inputs. Could you share it here once it is back up online?
Performance has been updated. I first noticed it in the pull-down menu on my Android device, but you can't find it from a laptop. However, the old link is working again.
https://growmytsp.com/performance/
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie

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jatelle
Posts: 316
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Re: Highly recommend

Post by jatelle »

The numbers look more in line now. But someone really needs to help them scrub their numbers before publishing. This redo still has an error: it posted the F fund 3 year return as a loss of -2.62% when it is actually a positive 2.62% return. It is minor but it makes me doubt the reliability of the rest of their figures.
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bloobs
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Re: Highly recommend

Post by bloobs »

jatelle wrote: Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:26 pm The numbers look more in line now. But someone really needs to help them scrub their numbers before publishing. This redo still has an error: it posted the F fund 3 year return as a loss of -2.62% when it is actually a positive 2.62% return. It is minor but it makes me doubt the reliability of the rest of their figures.
I actually allocated a small position in a taxable account base on their allocation. But as you said, continuing discoveries of discrepancies in their updated calculations (and more importantly, the much reduced returns data shown in the latest corrected version) has me putting at least stop loss orders for those buys this morning. If these get triggered, I will revert that bucket of money into a short-term trading methodology. Yes, somewhat disappointed.

jackyl33
Posts: 69
Joined: Tue Sep 30, 2008 5:17 pm

Re: Highly recommend

Post by jackyl33 »

I have to apologize. I was so excited when GrowMyTSP released their performance numbers at the beginning of this year that I wanted to share this with all of the awesome people here at tspcenter.com

I enjoy their analysis and podcast, but I've become skeptical.

Best of luck to everyone this year.

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12squared
Posts: 675
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:28 am

Re: Highly recommend

Post by 12squared »

jackyl33 wrote: Fri Jan 20, 2023 11:15 am I have to apologize. I was so excited when GrowMyTSP released their performance numbers at the beginning of this year that I wanted to share this with all of the awesome people here at tspcenter.com

I enjoy their analysis and podcast, but I've become skeptical.

Best of luck to everyone this year.
I was excited at first too. However, after a while I realized that their analysis wasn't all that sophisticated, and that their allocations were fairly conservative - better for avoiding downturns like in '20 & '22 than outperforming the market in good years.

I also couldn't sit through the banter of their hour-long podcasts. I get much more from a few minutes reading the daily market analysis on TSPtalk.
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie

Bubba
Posts: 394
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:40 am

Re: Highly recommend

Post by Bubba »

If you really care to learn new things about the market, then I would suggest spending many hours here https://jayonthemarkets.com/. Jay has been one of the biggest changes in my life and the author is very affable too! Always willing to reconsider his writing. You will not leave his website without having learned new things...many which you can use for the TSP too.

jedi757
Posts: 17
Joined: Sat Oct 05, 2013 12:15 pm

Re: Highly recommend

Post by jedi757 »

Its a bull shit site. Don't bother.

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".