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19,587 members, 71 online
Newest member: jpatino
July 05
Probabilities (formerly Push, Pull, and Jump)
by  United States Tomanyiron | 19 Comments

Have a few modifications to start off the second half of 2020. And to reiterate, I’m a chart patterns watcher, not very technical and not much with methodical data analysis. Plain and simple, I look at the squiggly lines, and hunt for repeating patterns. Only after I see the patterns do I tackle the numbers.
The new chart will have 3 items “squiggly lines”.

1- Friend, (“The Trend is Your Friend”, and should be thought of before each IFT). This is a combination of the Push, Pull, and the Bullish Indexes into one indicator. The old charts needed some disentanglements, so I reduced these 3 to a "Keep it Simple, Stupid" easier to read line. The million dollar question, of course, was: what amount of each? Been working on that and I think I have a good formula. I did some ‘low-brow’ back-looking. Made sure some of the major pullbacks/corrections were looked at, (Feb-Mar this year, 2018, 2016, 2011, and the big one of 2008). I saw enough to proceed with this blend.

2- Force, (formerly Jump, with same formula), which uses Put/Call options to form a momentum oscillator that swings above and below a zero line. The basic principle is this; if the line is over (0) you’re good to be in stocks, but under (0) means stay out of stocks. Not as “crystal ballish.” as I first hoped but still logical.

3- S Fund, the fund Du-jour of TSP, the place to be when stocks are humming. And the fund to avoid when they are not. My strategy is an all in or all out system. 100% S when I perceive stock prices are going up. 100% G when not.

The chart below is from Feb – May 2020. As you can see the Friend line is very smooth, but it is the actual numbers where the signals come from. The looking-back suggests a two day change of direction for a true signal.
And the big question is when did it say sell in Feb, (the change, not easy to see)? The sell signal was on Feb 19, (2nd day back-to-back down). And when did it say buy? That was Mar 26 (2nd day in a row up). The Jump was a little late to signal exit in Feb, but had a better buy signal in March.

Image
July 04
Rule of 72
by  United States 23V23C | 13 Comments

So I’ve been thinking about a point another site member said last year…don’t remember who. Their strategy was to aim for a simple 2% in gains a month. Having a strategy of 2% a month @ 24% annually and applying the “Rule of 72” could very well make us millionaires by the time we retire.

The “Rule of 72” simply states: 72 / interest rate = years to double

I plan to retire in 9 years. The “Rule of 72” says I should double my money every three years if I earn 24% annually (72/24=3). I currently have a TSP balance of $289K. Using this thought process of 24% annually, my $289K would double to $578K by 2023, 578K would double to $1.156M by 2026, and by my retirement year of 2029 I just might have $2.2312M.

WHAT!!!!!

“Rule of 72”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/28/what-th ... works.html




July 03
Account Question
by  United States danho | 6 Comments

Morning, I logged in to my TSP account this morning and am noticing a roughly $6600 drop in my account total from 7/1 to 7/2. I am currently a 50/50 C-S split and the prices have been up since the 29th.

Anyone else seeing similar? Am I missing something?

Thanks.




July 03
L2020?
by  United States - Hawaii ProduceMan | 2 Comments

How did you get the L2020 share prices for July?




July 02
L income
by  United States Bubba | 5 Comments

Dear all,

I'm wondering how our returns would change if we went to L income instead of G or F for the daylies. Anyone try this?

Best

Bubba




July 02
A movement that I've been keeping an eye on...
by  United States - Washington Aitrus | 73 Comments

I came across the Propertarianism movement a while back. It has some interesting theories, ideas, and proposals. Admittedly, there's a ton of stuff that this group has covered, but I've read their Declaration of Reformation and their proposed amendments for an updated / restored Constitution. Given all of the rioting and social / political conflict in our society these days, this group seems to be the only ones offering a possible solution.

This coming Saturday, the 4th of July, they'll be meeting in Richmond to kick formally announce their proposal. They make no bones about coming from the conservative side of the aisle, but they seem to be sincere in their efforts, and predict an escalation of the cultural violence we've been seeing if something isn't done sooner or later.

Here's a quick overview of the biggest pieces of what they propose (watch all the way to the end): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciefChL0PJM

Link to their Declaration / Constitution (watch the video first - there's multiple hours of reading in this link): https://seconddeclaration.org/

I'm not entirely decided on what I think about these proposals, and I'm interested in seeing what you guys think. Thoughts?




July 02
S Fund Tracking DWCPF
by  United States seawatcher | 6 Comments

What index and web site do you follow to track the S Fund?

TSP.gov states "The S Fund's investment objective is to match the performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, a broad market index made up of stocks of U.S. companies not included in the S&P 500 Index." So that would be DWCPF.

MarketWatch.com shows this index reporting 1pm and ending 8pm Eastern Time. And it does not always match S fund performance, sometimes not even close. Today, it shows DWCPF is down 1% but S fund is up a bit. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dwcpf?countrycode=xx

Other Web Sites show DWCPF reporting 9:30am-4pm and show returns more close to S fund performance. For example - https://www.google.com/search?tbm=fin&q=dwcpf#scso=_-iX9XueDCsKrytMPxu2dmAE1:0

Thanks in advance if you can clear up this confusion.




 
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TSP Share Prices for Jul 6, 2020
    Close Day YTD
   G Fund $16.4490 +0.01% +0.60%
   F Fund $20.9555 +0.05% +6.28%
   C Fund $46.9567 +1.59% -0.64%
   S Fund $54.0427 +1.44% -3.97%
   I Fund $30.0523 +1.73% -8.14%
   L 2050 $21.9759 +1.33% -2.26%
   L 2040 $37.7690 +1.17% -1.72%
   L 2030 $34.4434 +0.98% -1.17%
   L 2020 $29.2739 +0.37% -0.11%
   L Income $21.2689 +0.37% +0.39%
TSP Center Sponsors
 
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)
S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
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AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)

DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)